Whether you’re already a homeowner or you’re looking to become one, the recent headlines about home prices may leave you with more questions than answers. News stories are talking about home prices falling, and that’s raising concerns about a repeat of what happened to prices in the crash in 2008.
One of the questions that’s on many minds, based on those headlines, is: how much will home prices decline? But what you may not realize is expert forecasters
aren’t calling for a free fall in prices. In fact, if you look at the
latest data, there’s a case to be made that the biggest portion of
month-over-month price depreciation nationally may already behind us –
and even those numbers weren’t significant declines on the national
level. Instead of how far will they drop, the question becomes: have home values hit bottom?
Let’s take a look at the latest data from several reputable industry sources (see chart below):
The chart above provides a look at the most recent reports from Case-Shiller, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Black Knight, and CoreLogic.
It shows how, on a national scale, home values have changed
month-over-month since January 2022. November and December numbers have
yet to come out.
Let’s focus in on what the red numbers tell us. The red numbers are
the change in home values over the last four months that have been
published. And if we isolate the last four months, what the data shows
is, in each case, home price depreciation peaked in August.
While that doesn’t guarantee home price depreciation has hit bottom,
it confirms prices aren’t in a free fall, and it may be an early signal
that the worst is already behind us. As the numbers for November and
December are released, data will be able to further validate this
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Home prices month-over-month have depreciated for the past four months on record, but there’s a strong case to be made that the worst may be behind us. If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in our local market, let’s connect.
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