After more than a year of headlines talking about how home prices are going to crash,
the latest data shows that price growth may be starting to pick back up
again. And depending on whether you’re buying or selling, that shift
means something different for you.
The Numbers May Be Starting To Turn
For the past couple of years, home price growth has been moderating – cooling from around 7% in mid-2024, according to Redfin (see graph below). But look at the right side of that graph. The pace of that growth appears to have hit its low point and started to turn.
While
a couple months of data doesn’t necessarily mean this will be a lasting
trend, there are some other signs that this could continue.
For example, fewer markets are seeing prices decline. According to ResiClub and Zillow, about 36%
of the 300 largest housing markets had falling prices as of the middle
of last year. Since the start of this year, that share has been
shrinking. Now? Only 23% are experiencing those mild dips (see graph below):
When fewer markets see prices falling, that means more markets are seeing prices rise again.
And forecasts suggest this shift has room to run. On average, experts project home prices will rise about 2.3% nationally this year. And for that to happen, price growth would have to pick up a bit in the second half of 2026.
But Remember, Real Estate Is LOCAL
While
it looks like national prices may be starting to pick back up a tiny
bit, that doesn’t mean that’s what’s happening in your neighborhood.
National
home prices are really just an average of hundreds of local markets.
Some are climbing faster. Others are still cooling. But one reason the
national average may be looking up is because a growing number of metros
may actually be net positive for prices this year.
Not long ago,
the major metros were split about 50/50 – half seeing prices rise and
half seeing them fall. Now, that balance looks like it’s starting to tip
in a more positive direction. Just last month, more than half of the
major metros saw prices go up, according to Redfin (see graph below):
As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, explains:
“. . . local markets continue to tell very different stories. Annual home price growth has changed little since the start of the year, but some markets, especially those supported by strong job and income growth in the West and more affordable Midwest markets, have seen notable acceleration in price gains.”
What This Means for You
Home
price headlines can be confusing because they don’t always tell the
full picture. Lean on an agent to understand what’s happening in your
local market and what the early signs say for where prices may go from
here.
That’s the best way to stay one step ahead of the market.
If you're buying: slower
price growth has worked in your favor. You've had more room to
negotiate and a budget you could plan around. If price growth is picking
up in your area, buying now may mean paying less than you would later
this year.
If you own a home: you've been gaining
equity all along, even while growth moderated. If growth keeps picking
up, those gains could speed up, too. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at
the National Association of Realtors (NAR), projects the typical homeowner will gain roughly $16,000
in housing wealth this year. And if you're thinking about selling, this
shift is a good early sign for you. Just remember, the market is still
pretty balanced and buyer-friendly in a lot of areas right now.
Home
price growth slowed way down, and now it's showing early signs of
picking back up. Whether you're buying or selling, let's connect so you
can see exactly what prices are doing in our local market and what that
means for your plans.
Bottom Line
Home price growth slowed way down, and now it's showing early signs of picking back up. Whether you're buying or selling, let's connect so you can see exactly what prices are doing in our local market and what that means for your plans.
Sally Heldman
Broker Owner
Metro Brokers / Heldman Real Estate
303.475.4508 CELL
sally@sallyheldman.com